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Where is your housing market?

Most overvalued housing markets
Latest analysis of 299 markets: See how your hometown ranks.
By Les Christie, staff writer
January 3, 2006: 2:33 AM EST

NEW YORK ( - Sixty-five of the nation's 299 biggest real estate markets are severely overpriced and subject to possible price corrections.

That's according to the latest (third quarter) Housing Market Analysis conducted by National City Corp, a financial holding company, in conjunction with Global Insight, a financial information provider.

The report named Naples, Florida as the most overvalued of all housing markets in the United States. A single-family, median-priced home there sells for $329,970, 84 percent more than what it should cost -- $180,956 -- according to the analysis.

National City arrives at its estimates of what the typical house in these markets should cost by examining the town's population densities, local interest rates, and income levels. It also factors in historical premiums and discounts for each area.

Other markets deemed wildly overpriced included Merced, California (by 77 percent), Salinas, California (75 percent), and Port St. Lucie, Florida (72 percent).

Undervalued markets were College Station (-23 percent), El Paso (-18 percent), and Killeen (-16 percent), all in Texas. That state dominated the discounted markets list with nine of the 10 most undervalued housing markets. Montgomery, Alabama was No. 8 among the undervalued markets.

The data did produce some evidence of prices moderating, according to National City's chief economist, Richard DeKaser.

In Massachusetts, for example, one of the hottest of housing markets over the past few years, each of the seven housing markets analyzed was still overvalued. Prices, however, had fallen in all seven. That would indicate the state is trending back toward normal valuations.

The same could not be said of Florida. The Sunshine State had 15 different markets on the list of extremely overpriced metro areas and all 15 had grown more overpriced during the quarter.

Amidst all these hot and cold markets there were a few judged, like Goldilock's porridge, "just right." They included Albuquerque New Mexico, Dayton Ohio, and Omaha Nebraska. In all those towns actually selling prices closely tracked the expected values.

Metro area % over/
Naples, FL +84%
Merced, CA +77%
Salinas, CA +75%
Port St. Lucie, FL +72%
Stockton, CA +72%
Madera, CA +70%
Santa Barbara, CA +70%
Modesto, CA +67%
Napa, CA +65%
Riverside, CA +65%
Medford, OR +64%
Sacramento, CA +61%
Atlantic City, NJ +59%
Chico, CA +59%
Fresno, CA +58%
West Palm Beach, FL +57%
Redding, CA +56%
Santa Rosa, CA +56%
Bend, OR +56%
Sarasota, FL +56%
Miami, FL +55%
Oxnard, CA +55%
Vero Beach, FL +54%
Los Angeles, CA +54%
Fort Lauderdale, FL +53%
Vallejo, CA +53%
San Luis Obispo, CA +53%
Cape Coral, FL +52%
Bakersfield, CA +51%
Palm Bay, FL +49%
Barnstable Town, MA +48%
Oakland, CA +47%
Ocean City, NJ +47%
Prescott, AZ +46%
Panama City, FL +46%
San Diego, CA +46%
Visalia, CA +45%
San Jose, CA +44%
Deltona, FL +44%
Santa Cruz, CA +44%
Santa Ana, CA +44%
Bellingham, WA +43%
Fort Walton Beach, FL +43%
Nassau-Suffolk, NY +43%
Poughkeepsie, NY +39%
Reno, NV +38%
Las Vegas, NV +38%
Kingston, NY +38%
Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV +37%
Bethesda, MD +36%
Providence, RI-MA +35%
San Francisco, CA +35%
St. George, UT +35%
Ocala, FL +35%
Phoenix, AZ +35%
Portland, OR-WA +35%
Eugene, OR +34%
Tampa, FL +34%
Pensacola, FL +33%
Orlando, FL +33%
Grand Junction, CO +31%
Honolulu, HI +31%
Edison, NJ +31%
Duluth, MN-WI +31%
Jacksonville, FL +31%
Virginia Beach, VA-NC +29%
Worcester, MA +29%
Portland, ME +29%
Flagstaff, AZ +29%
Essex County, MA +28%
Baltimore, MD +28%
Charlottesville, VA +28%
Charleston, WV +28%
Tucson, AZ +27%
Newark, NJ-PA +27%
New York, NY-NJ +27%
Monroe, MI +26%
Bay City, MI +26%
Flint, MI +26%
Olympia, WA +26%
Wilmington, NC +25%
Tacoma, WA +25%
Salem, OR +25%
Minneapolis, MN-WI +24%
Asheville, NC +24%
Seattle, WA +24%
Mount Vernon, WA +24%
Jackson, MI +24%
Longview, WA +24%
Lakeland, FL +23%
Brunswick, GA +23%
Gainesville, FL +23%
Manchester, NH +23%
Bremerton, WA +22%
Tallahassee, FL +22%
Holland, MI +22%
Niles, MI +21%
Savannah, GA +21%
Santa Fe, NM +21%
Chicago, IL +21%
Metro area % over/
Eau Claire, WI +20%
Vineland, NJ +20%
Trenton, NJ +20%
Rockingham, NH +20%
Anchorage, AK +20%
Casper, WY +20%
Racine, WI +20%
Battle Creek, MI +20%
Springfield, MA +19%
Detroit, MI +19%
Greeley, CO +19%
Burlington, VT +18%
Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ +18%
Camden, NJ +18%
Boston, MA +18%
Lansing, MI +18%
Boulder, CO +18%
Michigan City, IN +17%
Ann Arbor, MI +17%
York, PA +17%
Milwaukee, WI +16%
Madison, WI +16%
Philadelphia, PA +15%
Spokane, WA +15%
Warren, MI +15%
Norwich, CT +15%
Richmond, VA +15%
Corvallis, OR +14%
Grand Rapids, MI +14%
Muskegon, MI +14%
Lake-Kenosha, IL-WI +14%
Albany, NY +13%
Allentown, PA-NJ +13%
Saginaw, MI +13%
Harrisonburg, VA +13%
La Crosse, WI-MN +13%
Boise City, ID +13%
Pittsfield, MA +13%
Wenatchee, WA +13%
Rockford, IL +13%
Farmington, NM +13%
Cambridge, MA +12%
New Orleans, LA +12%
Janesville, WI +11%
New Haven, CT +11%
Gainesville, GA +11%
Kalamazoo, MI +11%
Roanoke, VA +11%
Fayetteville, AR-MO +11%
Canton, OH +11%
Lancaster, PA +10%
Colorado Springs, CO +10%
Denver, CO +10%
Peoria, IL +10%
Reading, PA +10%
Fort Collins, CO +10%
Waterloo, IA +9%
Gary, IN +9%
St. Louis, MO-IL +9%
Champaign, IL +9%
Yakima, WA +9%
Dalton, GA +9%
Sheboygan, WI +9%
Toledo, OH +9%
Green Bay, WI +8%
Springfield, OH +8%
Youngstown, OH-PA +8%
Lynchburg, VA +8%
Davenport, IA-IL +7%
St. Joseph, MO-KS +7%
Mansfield, OH +7%
Hickory, NC +6%
Fond du Lac, WI +6%
Cleveland, OH +6%
Bridgeport, CT +6%
Billings, MT +5%
Chattanooga, TN-GA +5%
Idaho Falls, ID +5%
Cheyenne, WY +5%
Pueblo, CO +5%
Dubuque, IA +4%
Topeka, KS +4%
Hartford, CT +4%
Kansas City, MO-KS +4%
Akron, OH +4%
Wausau, WI +4%
Salt Lake City, UT +4%
Scranton, PA +4%
Lexington, KY +4%
Bismarck, ND +4%
Athens, GA +3%
Fargo, ND-MN +3%
Sandusky, OH +3%
Knoxville, TN +3%
Bloomington, IN +3%
Anderson, IN +3%
Lafayette, LA +3%
Louisville, KY-IN +3%
Durham, NC +2%
Atlanta, GA +2%
Metro area % over/
Erie, PA +2%
Columbia, MO +2%
Columbus, OH +2%
Harrisburg, PA +2%
Kennewick, WA +2%
Provo, UT +2%
Lima, OH +1%
Utica, NY +1%
Bowling Green, KY +1%
Hattiesburg, MS +1%
Decatur, IL +1%
Columbia, SC +1%
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN +1%
Rochester, MN 0%
Greenville, SC 0%
Oshkosh, WI 0%
Lawrence, KS 0%
Las Cruces, NM 0%
Omaha, NE-IA 0%
Appleton, WI 0%
Albuquerque, NM 0%
Burlington, NC 0%
Ogden, UT 0%
Baton Rouge, LA 0%
Dayton, OH 0%
Amarillo, TX 0%
Alexandria, LA 0%
Kokomo, IN -1%
Nashville, TN -1%
Winston-Salem, NC -1%
Spartanburg, SC -1%
Florence, SC -1%
Birmingham, AL -1%
Sherman, TX -1%
Jackson, MS -1%
Houma, LA -1%
Pittsburgh, PA -1%
Binghamton, NY -1%
Monroe, LA -2%
Columbus, GA-AL -2%
Sioux Falls, SD -2%
Des Moines, IA -2%
Columbus, IN -2%
Lincoln, NE -2%
Mobile, AL -2%
Greensboro, NC -2%
Albany, GA -2%
Augusta, GA-SC -2%
Raleigh, NC -3%
Owensboro, KY -3%
Evansville, IN-KY -3%
Bloomington, IL -3%
Shreveport, LA -3%
Cedar Rapids, IA -3%
Greenville, NC -4%
Syracuse, NY -4%
South Bend, IN-MI -4%
Indianapolis, IN -5%
Springfield, IL -5%
Rocky Mount, NC -5%
Oklahoma City, OK -5%
Jefferson City, MO -5%
Buffalo, NY -5%
Fort Wayne, IN -5%
Charlotte, NC-SC -6%
Warner Robins, GA -6%
Iowa City, IA -6%
Decatur, AL -6%
Wichita, KS -6%
Little Rock, AR -6%
Macon, GA -6%
Springfield, MO -6%
Elkhart, IN -6%
Waco, TX -7%
Charleston, SC -7%
Midland, TX -7%
Austin, TX -7%
Lubbock, TX -7%
Tyler, TX -7%
Corpus Christi, TX -8%
Fort Smith, AR-OK -8%
Tulsa, OK -9%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR -9%
Rochester, NY -9%
San Angelo, TX -10%
Lafayette, IN -10%
Abilene, TX -11%
San Antonio, TX -11%
Huntsville, AL -11%
Longview, TX -11%
Odessa, TX -12%
Montgomery, AL -12%
Houston, TX -14%
Fort Worth, TX -15%
Beaumont, TX -15%
Dallas, TX -16%
Killeen, TX -16%
El Paso, TX -18%
College Station, TX -23%

· Registered
433 Posts
and i thought NY would have been the worst!!

I dont know how I will afford a house once i move out.....average home prices on long island in a decent area are around 500k on average. parents home cost them 745k two years worth a little over 1 million according to an appraisal we got a month ago....150k of that is just increase with the market...the rest is additions.

but seriously...home prices are ridiculous....problem is....there is a lot of job opportunities and good salaries in the NY/ LI area.....BUT

we pay SO much in taxes here (my parents pay 18k a year in home taxes)....I pay 3500 a year for my truck insurance...and cant even afford full coverage for my bike yet. gas is expensive....everybody buys nice stuff around here and expensive cars...and we SIT in traffic on the Long Island Expressway everyday!!!! pointless to live here...pointless...but we are all suckers!

· Banned
6,147 Posts
I hope Tally stays about 22 %...I'll take a 22 % ROI on my house in the woods...Probably gonna get more...they are asking over 300K for the two spec homes just completed around the circle...:dthumb: Trying to get 99birdV6 to buy one of them...

· Registered
1,897 Posts
2FURYUS said:
They might as well have said ALL of CA is overpriced.
Nice to have bought years ago:cheers:
Most of CA cities listed are inland crap cities knowbody wants to live in. Such as Redding, Mercede, Fresno, Bakersfield ect.
Coastal cities are listed as overvalued because housing prices have run up few hundred percent last few years. Will take 40% overvalued house anyday after it has run up 300% last three years.
Bay area housing still selling for full list price:crazy: Only change last few months, may take you two weeks to get your full price listed.

· V-Twin Moddin
39,300 Posts
Um... OK but :wbs:

Flint, Saginaw, and Detroit... + :scratch:

Must be plus cause they are still charging way too much for these **** hole cities!!! :nonod:

· Registered
1,897 Posts
sarawalker said:
My parents condo, and that's CONDO, in Hayward, Ca. was appraised 170k over what they paid for 8 months after they bought it. It's crazy out there. I hope they get out of it before it all crashes
Its supply and demand:dthumb: Bay Area has lots of people with money who want to live in desirable Bay Area. They arenot making any more land in Bay Area:whistle: Hayward not best location but your parents will never see their condo price crash. If all hell broke loose might drop 10 or 20%, but long run price will come right back. Its called LOCATION LOCATION.

· Registered
2,006 Posts
Cape Coral, FL +52%

We closed on a condo last February in Cape Coral with my inlaws. THe have nearly finished the complex and the price of hte last condo sold (same plan as ours) was nearly 2 times what we bought in for. I am saying SELL SELL SELL. BUt the rest of them say its nice for vacation. WHy are people so stupid?:bash:

· Registered
17,890 Posts
I would've thought Vegas would be more than 38%. It's hard to find a decent house for under 250K. The houses out here are popping up like crazy too. They have to stop building by 2012 to prevent water shortages so they're building like mad. i was gone for two weeks and I came back and there was tons of new houses being built.

· Registered
5,219 Posts
Ft Walton Bch, FL +43%

I think the market here is actually much higher than the figure shown, I bought before the crazy real estate rush and within 2 years my house was worth 1 1/2 times more than we paid for it, but the market is starting to slow a little, i think the hurricanes scared the out'o'towners!! :yikes: I work in real estate closings and since the last one (can't remember all the names, too many!:nonod: ) we have seen a definite drop in demand, :flush: the prices have also gotten so incredibly high, unless you are already wealthy, or want like 5 roommates nobody can afford anything!! This area is full of military ppl too and you KNOW the government don't pay enough for them to afford anything!!

· V-Twin Moddin
39,300 Posts
Being that I'm trying to sell my condo near Flint and buy a house in the metro detroit area... I'm going thru alot of this.

And who ever came up with the STUPID :rant: idea that $230K was cheap for a 1500 sq ft house!! :damn:
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