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Where is your housing market?
Most overvalued housing markets
Latest analysis of 299 markets: See how your hometown ranks.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
January 3, 2006: 2:33 AM EST
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Sixty-five of the nation's 299 biggest real estate markets are severely overpriced and subject to possible price corrections.
That's according to the latest (third quarter) Housing Market Analysis conducted by National City Corp, a financial holding company, in conjunction with Global Insight, a financial information provider.
The report named Naples, Florida as the most overvalued of all housing markets in the United States. A single-family, median-priced home there sells for $329,970, 84 percent more than what it should cost -- $180,956 -- according to the analysis.
National City arrives at its estimates of what the typical house in these markets should cost by examining the town's population densities, local interest rates, and income levels. It also factors in historical premiums and discounts for each area.
Other markets deemed wildly overpriced included Merced, California (by 77 percent), Salinas, California (75 percent), and Port St. Lucie, Florida (72 percent).
Undervalued markets were College Station (-23 percent), El Paso (-18 percent), and Killeen (-16 percent), all in Texas. That state dominated the discounted markets list with nine of the 10 most undervalued housing markets. Montgomery, Alabama was No. 8 among the undervalued markets.
The data did produce some evidence of prices moderating, according to National City's chief economist, Richard DeKaser.
In Massachusetts, for example, one of the hottest of housing markets over the past few years, each of the seven housing markets analyzed was still overvalued. Prices, however, had fallen in all seven. That would indicate the state is trending back toward normal valuations.
The same could not be said of Florida. The Sunshine State had 15 different markets on the list of extremely overpriced metro areas and all 15 had grown more overpriced during the quarter.
Amidst all these hot and cold markets there were a few judged, like Goldilock's porridge, "just right." They included Albuquerque New Mexico, Dayton Ohio, and Omaha Nebraska. In all those towns actually selling prices closely tracked the expected values.
Metro area % over/
under-
valued
Naples, FL +84%
Merced, CA +77%
Salinas, CA +75%
Port St. Lucie, FL +72%
Stockton, CA +72%
Madera, CA +70%
Santa Barbara, CA +70%
Modesto, CA +67%
Napa, CA +65%
Riverside, CA +65%
Medford, OR +64%
Sacramento, CA +61%
Atlantic City, NJ +59%
Chico, CA +59%
Fresno, CA +58%
West Palm Beach, FL +57%
Redding, CA +56%
Santa Rosa, CA +56%
Bend, OR +56%
Sarasota, FL +56%
Miami, FL +55%
Oxnard, CA +55%
Vero Beach, FL +54%
Los Angeles, CA +54%
Fort Lauderdale, FL +53%
Vallejo, CA +53%
San Luis Obispo, CA +53%
Cape Coral, FL +52%
Bakersfield, CA +51%
Palm Bay, FL +49%
Barnstable Town, MA +48%
Oakland, CA +47%
Ocean City, NJ +47%
Prescott, AZ +46%
Panama City, FL +46%
San Diego, CA +46%
Visalia, CA +45%
San Jose, CA +44%
Deltona, FL +44%
Santa Cruz, CA +44%
Santa Ana, CA +44%
Bellingham, WA +43%
Fort Walton Beach, FL +43%
Nassau-Suffolk, NY +43%
Poughkeepsie, NY +39%
Reno, NV +38%
Las Vegas, NV +38%
Kingston, NY +38%
Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV +37%
Bethesda, MD +36%
Providence, RI-MA +35%
San Francisco, CA +35%
St. George, UT +35%
Ocala, FL +35%
Phoenix, AZ +35%
Portland, OR-WA +35%
Eugene, OR +34%
Tampa, FL +34%
Pensacola, FL +33%
Orlando, FL +33%
Grand Junction, CO +31%
Honolulu, HI +31%
Edison, NJ +31%
Duluth, MN-WI +31%
Jacksonville, FL +31%
Virginia Beach, VA-NC +29%
Worcester, MA +29%
Portland, ME +29%
Flagstaff, AZ +29%
Essex County, MA +28%
Baltimore, MD +28%
Charlottesville, VA +28%
Charleston, WV +28%
Tucson, AZ +27%
Newark, NJ-PA +27%
New York, NY-NJ +27%
Monroe, MI +26%
Bay City, MI +26%
Flint, MI +26%
Olympia, WA +26%
Wilmington, NC +25%
Tacoma, WA +25%
Salem, OR +25%
Minneapolis, MN-WI +24%
Asheville, NC +24%
Seattle, WA +24%
Mount Vernon, WA +24%
Jackson, MI +24%
Longview, WA +24%
Lakeland, FL +23%
Brunswick, GA +23%
Gainesville, FL +23%
Manchester, NH +23%
Bremerton, WA +22%
Tallahassee, FL +22%
Holland, MI +22%
Niles, MI +21%
Savannah, GA +21%
Santa Fe, NM +21%
Chicago, IL +21%
Metro area % over/
under-
valued
Eau Claire, WI +20%
Vineland, NJ +20%
Trenton, NJ +20%
Rockingham, NH +20%
Anchorage, AK +20%
Casper, WY +20%
Racine, WI +20%
Battle Creek, MI +20%
Springfield, MA +19%
Detroit, MI +19%
Greeley, CO +19%
Burlington, VT +18%
Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ +18%
Camden, NJ +18%
Boston, MA +18%
Lansing, MI +18%
Boulder, CO +18%
Michigan City, IN +17%
Ann Arbor, MI +17%
York, PA +17%
Milwaukee, WI +16%
Madison, WI +16%
Philadelphia, PA +15%
Spokane, WA +15%
Warren, MI +15%
Norwich, CT +15%
Richmond, VA +15%
Corvallis, OR +14%
Grand Rapids, MI +14%
Muskegon, MI +14%
Lake-Kenosha, IL-WI +14%
Albany, NY +13%
Allentown, PA-NJ +13%
Saginaw, MI +13%
Harrisonburg, VA +13%
La Crosse, WI-MN +13%
Boise City, ID +13%
Pittsfield, MA +13%
Wenatchee, WA +13%
Rockford, IL +13%
Farmington, NM +13%
Cambridge, MA +12%
New Orleans, LA +12%
Janesville, WI +11%
New Haven, CT +11%
Gainesville, GA +11%
Kalamazoo, MI +11%
Roanoke, VA +11%
Fayetteville, AR-MO +11%
Canton, OH +11%
Lancaster, PA +10%
Colorado Springs, CO +10%
Denver, CO +10%
Peoria, IL +10%
Reading, PA +10%
Fort Collins, CO +10%
Waterloo, IA +9%
Gary, IN +9%
St. Louis, MO-IL +9%
Champaign, IL +9%
Yakima, WA +9%
Dalton, GA +9%
Sheboygan, WI +9%
Toledo, OH +9%
Green Bay, WI +8%
Springfield, OH +8%
Youngstown, OH-PA +8%
Lynchburg, VA +8%
Davenport, IA-IL +7%
St. Joseph, MO-KS +7%
Mansfield, OH +7%
Hickory, NC +6%
Fond du Lac, WI +6%
Cleveland, OH +6%
Bridgeport, CT +6%
Billings, MT +5%
Chattanooga, TN-GA +5%
Idaho Falls, ID +5%
Cheyenne, WY +5%
Pueblo, CO +5%
Dubuque, IA +4%
Topeka, KS +4%
Hartford, CT +4%
Kansas City, MO-KS +4%
Akron, OH +4%
Wausau, WI +4%
Salt Lake City, UT +4%
Scranton, PA +4%
Lexington, KY +4%
Bismarck, ND +4%
Athens, GA +3%
Fargo, ND-MN +3%
Sandusky, OH +3%
Knoxville, TN +3%
Bloomington, IN +3%
Anderson, IN +3%
Lafayette, LA +3%
Louisville, KY-IN +3%
Durham, NC +2%
Atlanta, GA +2%
Metro area % over/
under-
valued
Erie, PA +2%
Columbia, MO +2%
Columbus, OH +2%
Harrisburg, PA +2%
Kennewick, WA +2%
Provo, UT +2%
Lima, OH +1%
Utica, NY +1%
Bowling Green, KY +1%
Hattiesburg, MS +1%
Decatur, IL +1%
Columbia, SC +1%
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN +1%
Rochester, MN 0%
Greenville, SC 0%
Oshkosh, WI 0%
Lawrence, KS 0%
Las Cruces, NM 0%
Omaha, NE-IA 0%
Appleton, WI 0%
Albuquerque, NM 0%
Burlington, NC 0%
Ogden, UT 0%
Baton Rouge, LA 0%
Dayton, OH 0%
Amarillo, TX 0%
Alexandria, LA 0%
Kokomo, IN -1%
Nashville, TN -1%
Winston-Salem, NC -1%
Spartanburg, SC -1%
Florence, SC -1%
Birmingham, AL -1%
Sherman, TX -1%
Jackson, MS -1%
Houma, LA -1%
Pittsburgh, PA -1%
Binghamton, NY -1%
Monroe, LA -2%
Columbus, GA-AL -2%
Sioux Falls, SD -2%
Des Moines, IA -2%
Columbus, IN -2%
Lincoln, NE -2%
Mobile, AL -2%
Greensboro, NC -2%
Albany, GA -2%
Augusta, GA-SC -2%
Raleigh, NC -3%
Owensboro, KY -3%
Evansville, IN-KY -3%
Bloomington, IL -3%
Shreveport, LA -3%
Cedar Rapids, IA -3%
Greenville, NC -4%
Syracuse, NY -4%
South Bend, IN-MI -4%
Indianapolis, IN -5%
Springfield, IL -5%
Rocky Mount, NC -5%
Oklahoma City, OK -5%
Jefferson City, MO -5%
Buffalo, NY -5%
Fort Wayne, IN -5%
Charlotte, NC-SC -6%
Warner Robins, GA -6%
Iowa City, IA -6%
Decatur, AL -6%
Wichita, KS -6%
Little Rock, AR -6%
Macon, GA -6%
Springfield, MO -6%
Elkhart, IN -6%
Waco, TX -7%
Charleston, SC -7%
Midland, TX -7%
Austin, TX -7%
Lubbock, TX -7%
Tyler, TX -7%
Corpus Christi, TX -8%
Fort Smith, AR-OK -8%
Tulsa, OK -9%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR -9%
Rochester, NY -9%
San Angelo, TX -10%
Lafayette, IN -10%
Abilene, TX -11%
San Antonio, TX -11%
Huntsville, AL -11%
Longview, TX -11%
Odessa, TX -12%
Montgomery, AL -12%
Houston, TX -14%
Fort Worth, TX -15%
Beaumont, TX -15%
Dallas, TX -16%
Killeen, TX -16%
El Paso, TX -18%
College Station, TX -23%
Hayward not best location but your parents will never see their condo price crash. If all hell broke loose might drop 10 or 20%, but long run price will come right back. Its called LOCATION LOCATION.
